Keterbukaan Perdagangan, Ukuran Pasar, Inflasi, Tingkat Pengangguran, dan FDI di Asia Timur dan Tenggara 2010-2023
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Abstract
Penelitian ini menganalisis pengaruh keterbukaan perdagangan, ukuran pasar, inflasi, dan tingkat pengangguran terhadap Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) di Asia Timur dan Asia Tenggara periode 2010–2023. FDI mencerminkan kepercayaan investor asing, berkontribusi terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi dan menjadi fokus kebijakan global. Mengingat peran strategis FDI, perbedaan temuan terdahulu dan keterbatasan bukti empiris regional menegaskan urgensi penelitian terkait determinan FDI ini. Studi ini menggunakan data panel dari 14 negara dengan metode random effects model (REM) dan perbaikan robust standard errors dengan white cross-section periode cluster untuk mengatasi heteroskedastisitas serta autokorelasi. Variabel independen dimodelkan dalam bentuk lagged one-year (t–1) untuk menangkap pengaruh dinamis kebijakan dan kondisi makroekonomi terhadap arus masuk FDI periode berikutnya (t+1). Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa keterbukaan perdagangan dan tingkat pengangguran lagged one-year berpengaruh positif signifikan terhadap FDI, sementara ukuran pasar dan inflasi tidak berpengaruh signifikan. Seluruh variabel independen lagged one-year terbukti signifikan terhadap FDI secara simultan. Temuan ini menegaskan bahwa penguatan fundamental pasar dan stabilitas makroekonomi merupakan faktor kunci dalam menjaga keberlanjutan arus FDI di kawasan dengan karakteristik pertumbuhan beragam. Penelitian selanjutnya disarankan menambahkan variabel makroekonomi lainnya serta variabel kontrol untuk meningkatkan robustness hasil analisis.
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